C-Price chaos in Ethiopia

For the whole 2025/26 harvest season market prices were soaring. Washing stations and farmers with processing facilities were buying up local cherries at high prices to produce lots for export, expecting to make a decent profit when the time came for selling.

It's Sod's Law then for the C price to drop as soon as export time rolled around.

Having processed their coffee, when producers began to bring it to market they were confronted with offers that barely covered the cost of the cherries they'd bought, let alone earned them a comfortable income. Many of them refused to sell at such low prices, holding out for a buyer that would pay them a fair price.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the supply chain, buyers were watching the still-unstable C price with anxiety. Of course they want to meet producers where they're at, but these businesses still had to go up against their own markets - buy high and the C price might plunge further before arrival, leaving the buyer with expensive coffee while their competitors who waited just a bit longer were able to buy (and therefore sell) for less.

Entering the scene, we at Omwani found ourselves in the middle of a stand off: both parties hoping for the C price to rise so that all could get what they needed.

Time, however, was also a factor. 

Everyone wants their coffee as fresh as possible, so an early shipment is something to be desired - a point which became doubly true when news broke of the conflict between Iran and the USA. Encompassing the Strait of Hormuz, the area of volatility was located close enough to the Suez Canal that shipping companies were beginning to think of rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This could add weeks onto the transit time, and subsequently put more pressure on buyers to make a decision. Take a chance with a high price and an uncertain market, or wait it out and hope for a more favourable position? 

After calling the team together, I laid the situation out for everyone. Whatever our choice, we would pay the farmers we work with a rate that saw them comfortable for the next year. No haggling, no pushing producers to sell at an unfair price. But we could hedge our bets by only buying one or two containers instead of the three we had planned. It was simply a case of how much of a gamble we wanted to take.

Our web call sat in silence for a moment after I posed the question. We were waiting for someone to make the choice, but only one man has the balls for that.

"Nah, let's do three containers, and let's book it now." Said co-founder James, much to my relief.

Had you worried there for a moment, didn't I? No, we've paid the farmers -the families- that we work with a price that Moata of Mecota Trading assures us is a good rate for this season (and I'd trust Mo with my life).

Moata, for those who don't already know, has been crucial for our sourcing in Ethiopia. He's the man with all the connections, but what's more is that he has operated in Ethiopia's coffee industry for decades, and fully understands the landscape there. Which is good, because it's complicated - I can't pretend to comprehend all the inner workings, and I get the feeling this article barely breaks the ice of what's been happening this season.

We're learning though. Bit by bit, year by year, we're getting more of an idea of what makes up the behemoth that is coffee in the country of its birth.